A human being from a Finland.

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Joined 11 days ago
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Cake day: September 14th, 2025

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  • In 2022 it was impossible for Putin to use nukes, because launching nuclear weapons is one of the only thing in the Russia where the president really has no chance of deciding on things alone. Gerasimov is a professional soldier, and worked only because it’s his job. He has no actual values in play, except pride of being skilled at his job, and he will not allow his family to die just because of the Russia’s “honour” being violated. Similarly, Šojgu is a bootlicker who does everything for personal gain and the Moscow being obliterated by nukes is not something he sees as an acceptable price for anything at all. And in the Russia you need an order from the people in all of those three positions, or nothing will be launched.

    Putin could never get Šojgu and Gerasimov to give such orders, and he knows that had he tried to, he would have lost his head almost immediately. Those people would have seen Putin as a direct threat to their loved ones, as would have most of who have any influence in the Russia. That would have been Putin’s end.

    Now, the leadership of the military has been restructured to be more accommodating to Putin’s will, but it’s still not at a level where Putin can trust he’ll get both orders given by the other two people. And if he tries and fails … well, read above. His head will roll. Now he would actually have a chance of success, but he’s still maybe 80 % likely to fail if he tries. And actually… PACO.

    Now is still a time when we can safely use military power against the Russia without a danger of a nuclear war. That time will not last forever, because Putin does want to use nukes and he is working to make it possible. He will, however, still need plenty more time for that. Luckily for him, especially Germans are giving it to him. Ironically, because they are afraid of nukes and don’t bother looking into how launching nukes works in the Russia.




  • I don’t think there’s a way they can crack down. They can bark, but they won’t bite. And if they did bite, people would ignore them and vote for other parties in next elections. Would probably mean that the right-wing extremist party “True Finns” would gain a lot of votes and would probably become the biggest party.

    But also, the bite would be so toothless that it probably wouldn’t really have the abovementioned effect. Here’s why:

    The Finnish police won’t enforce a crackdown like that. They have a habit of deciding what laws they care about and what they don’t, and this is definitely one they wouldn’t care about. The government can tell them to do a crackdown of a kind, but the police will just ignore that. If they are asked about it, they’ll say “we lack the resources for that”. Which is true. If you go to Wikipedia and see how many policemen Finland has per capita, it’s about one quarter of that in Germany, for example. They really don’t and won’t have any resources for that.