lots of these events that have occurred might have happened out of inertia. It might be that russians miscalculated and the war in Ukraine should have ended by now, and all these actions are part of a bigger plan

Historically it has been offered to Lithuania few times and every time the offer was declined. There’s a lot of ethnic Russians and with Lithuania having small population would had caused many internal problems probably similar events as in Crimea would had happened and struggle for the independence had been much harder.