It’s like saying a hammer can build a house. No, it can’t.
It’s useful to pound in nails and automate a lot of repetitive and boring tasks but it’s not going to build the house for you - architect it, plan it, validate it.
It’s similar to the whole 3D printing hype.
You can 3D print a house! No you can’t.
You can 3D print a wall, maybe a window.
Then have a skilled Craftsman put it all together for you, ensure fit and finish and essentially build the final product.
You’re making a great analogy with the 3D printing of a house.
However, if we consider the 3D printed house scenario; that skilled craftsman is now able to do things on his own that he would have needed a team for in the past. Most, if not all, of the less skilled members of that team are not getting any experience within the craft at that point. They’re no longer necessary when one skilled person can now do things on their own.
What happens when the skilled and highly experienced craftsmen that use AI as a supplemental tool (and subsequently earn all the work) eventually retire, and there’s been no juniors or mid-levels for a while? No one is really going to be qualified without having had exposure to the trade for several years.
Absolutely. This is a huge problem and I’ve read about this very problem from a number of sources. This will have a huge impact on engineering and information work.
Interestingly enough, A similar shortage occurred in the trades when information work was up and coming and the trades were shunned as a career path for many. Now we don’t have enough plumbers and electricians. Trades are now finding their the skills in high demand and charging very high rates.
The trades problem is a typical small business problem with toxic work environments. I knew plenty that washed out of the trades because of that. The “nobody wants to work anymore” tradesmen but really it’s “nobody wants to work with me for what I’m willing to pay”
I don’t doubt that that’s a problem either in some of those small businesses.
I have a great electrician that I call all the time. He’s probably in his late 60s. It’s definitely more of a rough and tumble work environment than IT work, for sure, but he’s a good guy and he pays his people well and he charges me an arm and a leg.
But we talk about it and he tells me about how the same work he would have charged a quarter the price just 10 years ago. And honestly, he’s one of the more affordable ones.
So it definitely seems like the trades is the place to be these days with so few good ones around. But yeah you have to pick and choose who’s mentoring you.
I hate the simulated intelligence nonsense at least as much as you, but you should probably know about this if you’re saying you can’t 3d print a house: https://youtu.be/vL2KoMNzGTo
Yeah I’ve seen that before and it’s basically what I’m talking about. Again, that’s not “printing a 3D house” as hype would lead one to believe. Is it extruding cement to build the walls around very carefully placed framing and heavily managed and coordinated by people and finished with plumbing, electrical, etc.
It’s cool that they can bring this huge piece of equipment to extrude cement to form some kind of wall. It’s a neat proof of concept. I personally wouldn’t want to live in a house that looked anything like or was constructed that way. Would you?
I mean, “to 3d print a wall” is a massive, bordering on disingenuous, understatement of what’s happening there. They’re replacing all of the construction work of framing and finishing all of the walls of the house, interior and exterior, plus attaching them and insulating them, with a single step.
My point is if you want to make a good argument against LLMs, your metaphor should not have such an easy argument against it at the ready.
Making the walls of a house is one of the easiest steps, if not the easiest. And these would still need insulation, electrical, etc. And they look like shit.
Spoken like a person who has never been involved in the construction of a home. It’s effectively doing the job of (poorly) pouring concrete which isn’t the difficult or time consuming part.
Ah, my apologies. I had interpreted your message to suggest that pouring cement from a robotic arm fully replaced all of the construction work of framing and finishing all of the walls of the house, interior and exterior, plus attaching them and insulating them, with a single step.
Did you see another video about this? The one linked only showed the walls and still showed them doing interior framing. Nothing about windows, electrical, plumbing, insulation, etc.
What they showed could speed up construction but there are tons of other steps involved.
I do wonder how sturdy it is since it doesn’t look like rebar or anything else is added.
I’m not an expert on it, I’ve only watched a few videos on it, but from what I’ve seen they add structural elements between the layers at certain points which act like rebar.
There’s no framing of the walls, but they do set up scaffolds to support overhangs (because you can’t print onto nothing)
I’m with you on this. We can’t just causally brush aside a machine that can create the frame of a house unattended - just because it can’t also do wiring. It was a bad choice of image to use to attack AI. In fact it’s a perfect metaphor for what AI is actually good for: automating certain parts of the work. Yes you still need an electrician to come in, just like you also need a software engineer to wire up the UI code their LLM generated to the back end, etc.
You circled all the way back to the original point lol. The whole thrust of this conversation is “AI can be used to automate parts of the work, but you still need knowledgeable people to finish it”. Just like “a concrete 3d printer can be used to automate parts of building a house, but you still need knowledgeable people to finish it.”
That’s your whole point, but you’re making it in bizarre ways, like equating a concrete 3D printer with a hammer and saying that building a house frame is meaningless because there’s still more to do.
Your issue is that you’re arguing with a straw man that’s not present. No one said AI can do absolutely everything soup to nuts. It allows for more automation than ever before, full stop. And you’re still harping on “yeah but you still need people.” No shit.
Then you blundered into the rhetorical pit of expecting everyone to hear “3D printing a house” as patently ridiculous, when in fact enormous strides are being made on that.
Well, a minute ago you were saying that AI worship is akin to saying
a hammer can build a house
Now you’re saying that a hammer is basically the same thing as a machine that can create a building frame unattended? Come on. You have a point to be made here but you’re leaning on the stick a bit too hard.
You can certainly 3D print a building, but can you really 3D print a house? Can it 3d print doors and windows that can open and close and be locked? Can it 3D print the plumbing and wiring and have it be safe and functional? Can it 3D print the foundation? What about bathroom fixtures, kitchen cabinets, and things like carpet?
It’s actually not a bad metaphor. You can use a 3D printer to help with building a house, and to 3D print some of fixtures and bits and pieces that go into the house. Using a 3D printer would automate a fair amount of the manual labor that goes into building a house today (at least how it is done in the US). But you’re still going to need people who know what they are doing put it all together to transform the building to a functional home. We’re still a fair ways away from just being able to 3D print a house, just like we’re fair ways away from having a LLM write a large, complex piece of software.
No they aren’t. With enough setup and very unique and expensive equipment, you can pour shitty concrete walls that will be way more expensive and worse than if you did it normally. That will give you 20% of the house, at best. 20% of not very good of a house.
The LLM worship has to stop.
It’s like saying a hammer can build a house. No, it can’t.
It’s useful to pound in nails and automate a lot of repetitive and boring tasks but it’s not going to build the house for you - architect it, plan it, validate it.
It’s similar to the whole 3D printing hype. You can 3D print a house! No you can’t.
You can 3D print a wall, maybe a window.
Then have a skilled Craftsman put it all together for you, ensure fit and finish and essentially build the final product.
You’re making a great analogy with the 3D printing of a house.
However, if we consider the 3D printed house scenario; that skilled craftsman is now able to do things on his own that he would have needed a team for in the past. Most, if not all, of the less skilled members of that team are not getting any experience within the craft at that point. They’re no longer necessary when one skilled person can now do things on their own.
What happens when the skilled and highly experienced craftsmen that use AI as a supplemental tool (and subsequently earn all the work) eventually retire, and there’s been no juniors or mid-levels for a while? No one is really going to be qualified without having had exposure to the trade for several years.
Absolutely. This is a huge problem and I’ve read about this very problem from a number of sources. This will have a huge impact on engineering and information work.
Interestingly enough, A similar shortage occurred in the trades when information work was up and coming and the trades were shunned as a career path for many. Now we don’t have enough plumbers and electricians. Trades are now finding their the skills in high demand and charging very high rates.
The trades problem is a typical small business problem with toxic work environments. I knew plenty that washed out of the trades because of that. The “nobody wants to work anymore” tradesmen but really it’s “nobody wants to work with me for what I’m willing to pay”
I don’t doubt that that’s a problem either in some of those small businesses.
I have a great electrician that I call all the time. He’s probably in his late 60s. It’s definitely more of a rough and tumble work environment than IT work, for sure, but he’s a good guy and he pays his people well and he charges me an arm and a leg.
But we talk about it and he tells me about how the same work he would have charged a quarter the price just 10 years ago. And honestly, he’s one of the more affordable ones.
So it definitely seems like the trades is the place to be these days with so few good ones around. But yeah you have to pick and choose who’s mentoring you.
I hate the simulated intelligence nonsense at least as much as you, but you should probably know about this if you’re saying you can’t 3d print a house: https://youtu.be/vL2KoMNzGTo
Yeah I’ve seen that before and it’s basically what I’m talking about. Again, that’s not “printing a 3D house” as hype would lead one to believe. Is it extruding cement to build the walls around very carefully placed framing and heavily managed and coordinated by people and finished with plumbing, electrical, etc.
It’s cool that they can bring this huge piece of equipment to extrude cement to form some kind of wall. It’s a neat proof of concept. I personally wouldn’t want to live in a house that looked anything like or was constructed that way. Would you?
I mean, “to 3d print a wall” is a massive, bordering on disingenuous, understatement of what’s happening there. They’re replacing all of the construction work of framing and finishing all of the walls of the house, interior and exterior, plus attaching them and insulating them, with a single step.
My point is if you want to make a good argument against LLMs, your metaphor should not have such an easy argument against it at the ready.
Huh? They just made the walls. Out of cement.
Making the walls of a house is one of the easiest steps, if not the easiest. And these would still need insulation, electrical, etc. And they look like shit.
Spoken like a person who has never been involved in the construction of a home. It’s effectively doing the job of (poorly) pouring concrete which isn’t the difficult or time consuming part.
My dude, I worked home renovations for many years. Nice try to discredit me rather than my argument though.
Ah, my apologies. I had interpreted your message to suggest that pouring cement from a robotic arm fully replaced all of the construction work of framing and finishing all of the walls of the house, interior and exterior, plus attaching them and insulating them, with a single step.
Did you see another video about this? The one linked only showed the walls and still showed them doing interior framing. Nothing about windows, electrical, plumbing, insulation, etc.
What they showed could speed up construction but there are tons of other steps involved.
I do wonder how sturdy it is since it doesn’t look like rebar or anything else is added.
I’m not an expert on it, I’ve only watched a few videos on it, but from what I’ve seen they add structural elements between the layers at certain points which act like rebar.
There’s no framing of the walls, but they do set up scaffolds to support overhangs (because you can’t print onto nothing)
I’m with you on this. We can’t just causally brush aside a machine that can create the frame of a house unattended - just because it can’t also do wiring. It was a bad choice of image to use to attack AI. In fact it’s a perfect metaphor for what AI is actually good for: automating certain parts of the work. Yes you still need an electrician to come in, just like you also need a software engineer to wire up the UI code their LLM generated to the back end, etc.
You circled all the way back to the original point lol. The whole thrust of this conversation is “AI can be used to automate parts of the work, but you still need knowledgeable people to finish it”. Just like “a concrete 3d printer can be used to automate parts of building a house, but you still need knowledgeable people to finish it.”
That’s your whole point, but you’re making it in bizarre ways, like equating a concrete 3D printer with a hammer and saying that building a house frame is meaningless because there’s still more to do.
Your issue is that you’re arguing with a straw man that’s not present. No one said AI can do absolutely everything soup to nuts. It allows for more automation than ever before, full stop. And you’re still harping on “yeah but you still need people.” No shit.
Then you blundered into the rhetorical pit of expecting everyone to hear “3D printing a house” as patently ridiculous, when in fact enormous strides are being made on that.
Well, a minute ago you were saying that AI worship is akin to saying
Now you’re saying that a hammer is basically the same thing as a machine that can create a building frame unattended? Come on. You have a point to be made here but you’re leaning on the stick a bit too hard.
3d printed concrete houses exist. Why can’t you 3d print a house? Not the best metaphor lol
You can certainly 3D print a building, but can you really 3D print a house? Can it 3d print doors and windows that can open and close and be locked? Can it 3D print the plumbing and wiring and have it be safe and functional? Can it 3D print the foundation? What about bathroom fixtures, kitchen cabinets, and things like carpet?
It’s actually not a bad metaphor. You can use a 3D printer to help with building a house, and to 3D print some of fixtures and bits and pieces that go into the house. Using a 3D printer would automate a fair amount of the manual labor that goes into building a house today (at least how it is done in the US). But you’re still going to need people who know what they are doing put it all together to transform the building to a functional home. We’re still a fair ways away from just being able to 3D print a house, just like we’re fair ways away from having a LLM write a large, complex piece of software.
Exactly this.
No they aren’t. With enough setup and very unique and expensive equipment, you can pour shitty concrete walls that will be way more expensive and worse than if you did it normally. That will give you 20% of the house, at best. 20% of not very good of a house.
You don’t like glass windows? Air conditioning? A door?