When they can exit a roundabout competently.
Decades, if not longer.
Within the current decade, according to Mercedes.
Depends on what you mean by “commercialized.”
My neighborhood has Waymo cars driving around all day every day. I can even pay them money to book a ride in one, like a Lyft or Uber. So in that sense, full self driving is commercialized.
Will consumers be able to buy a level 4 car in the next 1-2 years? No. While governments have given limited approvals for large-scale testing of self driving cars, the hurdles to selling anything like that to your average moron is far in the future. Governments will have to legislate all kinds of shit, including who is at fault in accidents and where they are allowed to drive. Insurance companies will have to figure out how to write contracts and how much to charge. And all of that ignores the technical challenges of getting it working properly and consistently in consumer vehicles.
Every car company has a financial incentive to, every year, say it’s a “couple years off” to keep investors intrigued.
Back when we all were a little hoodwinked by elon and didn’t know he was a complete, lying asshole, he said around 2014 or so it’d take just a couple of years. Then another couple. Then another couple.
I don’t really have faith it’ll ever be there in our lifetimes in a way that’s I’d trust.
