Iran’s top diplomat says the tentative deal to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon — a condition Israel has already rejected and that could sink the agreement.
Iran will wait until the receive the money and other benefits from the deal. They will likely let some cargo ships through the new toll system and re-arm. Letting some oil pass eases the strain and decreases the odds other nations will get involved when they re-close the Strait.
Israel during the time will keep attacking Lebanon. Iran once it’s ready, minimum one month, will launch several strikes on Israel citing Lebanon. It will then tell the US to drop support for Israel or it will void the agreement and close the Strait.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Trump may actually give Iran what it wants. They have fed his ego and convinced him this is a good deal and it will make him look good. The narcissist that he is will be pissed and much more likely to drop support for Israel for ruining his deal. Unless his handlers reign him in, then we get a full restart of the conflict shortly before midterms. Which will likely nudge things in favor of the democrat candidates.
This is pure speculation in my part, but I actually feel pretty confident on this one
It will be interesting to see what Israel will do. This would be a defeat for them. Currently they have two options for a victory. One is to defeat Hezbollah to the point that the Lebanese government takes full control over the country. The other one is to finish the genocide in Gaza(aka kill everybody). To me especially that one sounds like it might happen. Israel needs to kill the peace deal and this would look bad for Iran, as they are seen as a sort of protector of Gaza.
It also might just about keep Netanyahu in power, as taking Gaza would make him a hero for radical Zionists.
My theory on how this will go.
Iran will wait until the receive the money and other benefits from the deal. They will likely let some cargo ships through the new toll system and re-arm. Letting some oil pass eases the strain and decreases the odds other nations will get involved when they re-close the Strait.
Israel during the time will keep attacking Lebanon. Iran once it’s ready, minimum one month, will launch several strikes on Israel citing Lebanon. It will then tell the US to drop support for Israel or it will void the agreement and close the Strait.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Trump may actually give Iran what it wants. They have fed his ego and convinced him this is a good deal and it will make him look good. The narcissist that he is will be pissed and much more likely to drop support for Israel for ruining his deal. Unless his handlers reign him in, then we get a full restart of the conflict shortly before midterms. Which will likely nudge things in favor of the democrat candidates.
This is pure speculation in my part, but I actually feel pretty confident on this one
This sounds like a plausible turn of things. Here’s to November.
It will be interesting to see what Israel will do. This would be a defeat for them. Currently they have two options for a victory. One is to defeat Hezbollah to the point that the Lebanese government takes full control over the country. The other one is to finish the genocide in Gaza(aka kill everybody). To me especially that one sounds like it might happen. Israel needs to kill the peace deal and this would look bad for Iran, as they are seen as a sort of protector of Gaza.
It also might just about keep Netanyahu in power, as taking Gaza would make him a hero for radical Zionists.