• TotallynotJessica@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    1 day ago

    Vietnam didn’t have a massive effect on global trade that affects every economy on earth. The longer it goes on, the more major players will want to bring it to a swifter conclusion. It won’t be a multi decade slog between a handful of countries, but a Great War that drags dozens of nations into it. It’s a mini World War, not a forever war like Afghanistan. It’ll only turn into another Vietnam if America tries to nation build, and I think America giving up and going home with Iran in shambles is far more likely.

    • ajikeshi@lemmy.world
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      8 hours ago

      i agree on your point affecting trade.

      but since the current american regime and israel ar clashing and flip flopping around regime change no prediction in that regard can be made imo

      and it will probably become a forever war in my opinion, if the us flees from the war, the strait still wont be open due to iran demanding reparations.

      so the options are, reparations for iran, or invasion and regime change

      and ground war is something that majorly changed in the last 5 years, so one could expect high casualties for the invader

      • TotallynotJessica@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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        7 hours ago

        if the us flees from the war, the strait still wont be open due to iran demanding reparations.

        lol, no. Keeping the strait closed without the US still attacking makes no sense. They’d just receive even more hostility from the gulf states while wasting money and resources. If the US withdraws, they’ll open the strait so they can focus on preparing for the next war. They’ll demand reparations, but they know full well that they will never get them. Reparations aren’t a serious part of the conversation, only security guarantees that the US won’t immediately attack again.