According to the latest that I’ve read, these “Gerbera” type drones (“Shahed imitators” but dangerous enough to do damage) carried an extra fuel tank that isn’t found in Gerberas that fly in Ukraine.
Seems like a deliberate test of response.
I think the response of shooting them down was correct. I hope that a minimum of information about operating procedures leaked during work. I hope the shootdown was cheap (e.g. planes or helicopters using autocannon instead of missiles) because Gerberas are cheap, dirt cheap.
Some additional message needs to be figured out by NATO countries and communicated (more likely via practical action, since talk is cheap) from which a conclusion of “let’s not do it again” would be read out in Moscow. Preventing a few oil tankers from reaching St. Petersburg to load Russian oil might be one option.
Also, the question of “what’s on our menu for countering dirt cheap weapons” needs to be asked in many countries, and likely has been being asked for a while now. My bet: air-dropped unpowered glide vehicles that intercept a drone. No motor, just enough velocity and altitude from the fighter (or farmer) which brought them.
Putin has a history of doing exactly that. I think you’re right
Officials have cited the physical danger that such actions could cause and a desire to avoid an escalation in tensions between Russia and NATO.
Russia clearly does not share these concerns. This wasn’t an “act of aggression,” it was an act of war. Maybe rethink your attitude, NATO.
Hey, remember when Turkey unflinchingly smoked an Su-24 that entered their airspace, and then Russian shit flying into Turkish airspace was no longer a problem that Turkey had to deal with?
Pepperidge Farm remembers.
The solution is easy. You just need to have the stones to react to the situation as the Russians themselves would. That’s the geopolitical calculus they respond to. This pussy-footing around “avoiding escalation” encourages them to engage in encroaching brinksmanship. If NATO were to collectively say “here’s the line, don’t fucking cross it”, and then frag anything that crossed the line, Russia would very quickly stop crossing the line.
Turns out Russia DOES understand violence.
One might even go so far as to say that it’s their geopolitical mother tongue.
Hey, listen here, appeasement will work THIS time, I am sure of it. Maybe the EU needs to send send back some Russian dissidents and asylum seekers, that’ll do it. Or buy some more oil.
On a more serious note, NATO does not seem to understand that “fuck around,find out” doesn’t work when the “find out” phase is just a strongly worded letter.
It’s a direct result of relying almost entirely on the US Military as the “find out” part. That was a fine policy when there wasn’t much to do, but turns out that it’s not a great idea when US domestic politics become incredibly polarized and unpredictable, and whiplash wildly depending on which party gains power. The fact that this wasn’t used as rationale to improve European defense over the last decade or so - specifically, after the 2016 election - is utterly insane to me. Now, everyone’s scrambling around and panicking about how to defend stuff without the US - that is, assuming they’ve even admitted that US isolationism is a thing that’s not going away, which is its own unique flavor of insane myopicism.
All 100% true. EU and rest of NATO giving Trump valid ammunition by not meeting spend targets and essentially giving up the defense game is one of the greatest self-cuckings of all time. Obama and Merkel sold out Crimea for cheap LNG, and EU kept doing business as usual and now the world is hyperdependent on US.
Remember when Russia shot down a passenger jet and over 200 people died and the worst that happened to them was finger pointing? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Yep. Pretty fucking insane that they’ve effectively gotten away with that whole episode scott-free
Yeah, for me the troops releasing drones from Belarus are a legitimate target now. Sadly I’m not in charge of NATO.
No - this is about credible defense policy. As such, all that needs to be done is to adhere to the lines, and then actually and promptly follow through. Have a clear and credible path of escalation:
- notify Russia that any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace will be shot down, without warning
- shoot down, without warning, any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace
- notify Russia that any additional intrusions will be viewed as attacks, and that any subsequent intrusions will have their launch points or airbases rendered mission-ineffective
- render any airbases or launch points that are the origin of subsequent intrusions mission-ineffective
This is a level of realpolitik that the Russians will absolutely understand.
Totally agree but the first point should have been done 3 years ago and we should have been on point 3 since the first rockets fell in Poland which was like 2 years ago. Now we should be on point 4, not starting to think about the first one.
I agree completely. Biden’s lead-in to the invasion was, to be frank, a brilliantly adept usage and dissemination of intelligence.
And then he, on the advice of the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned, unforgivably Kissinger-esque, and idiotically geopolitically myopic Jake Sullivan, slow walked fucking everything after that point, because they were too busy pissing their pants at the ghost of USSR past to realize that Russia is a shadow of its former self, and relies on blustering and sword-rattling as primary geopolitical tactics, but doesn’t actually have the capacity to back any of it up.
NATO and Russia have been in a state of war for a long time now. it could have been as early as 2014, but defintley since 2022.
the difference is the war isn’t directley Kinetic, but we’re getting there, this is a small step up the escalatory ladder. We aren’t quite at the level Turkey was though, shooting down VKS jets and Killing Pilots
There were a total of 19 airspace violations. It was no accident, it’s an act of war.
I can’t imagine how sternly worded our letter to Russia is going to be! Scary stuff.
I had a feeling that was why the NOTAMs were issued. I suspected they were going to finally shoot shit down.
Go Poland!
