Hey, remember when Turkey unflinchingly smoked an Su-24 that entered their airspace, and then Russian shit flying into Turkish airspace was no longer a problem that Turkey had to deal with?
Pepperidge Farm remembers.
The solution is easy. You just need to have the stones to react to the situation as the Russians themselves would. That’s the geopolitical calculus they respond to. This pussy-footing around “avoiding escalation” encourages them to engage in encroaching brinksmanship. If NATO were to collectively say “here’s the line, don’t fucking cross it”, and then frag anything that crossed the line, Russia would very quickly stop crossing the line.
Hey, listen here, appeasement will work THIS time, I am sure of it. Maybe the EU needs to send send back some Russian dissidents and asylum seekers, that’ll do it. Or buy some more oil.
On a more serious note, NATO does not seem to understand that “fuck around,find out” doesn’t work when the “find out” phase is just a strongly worded letter.
It’s a direct result of relying almost entirely on the US Military as the “find out” part. That was a fine policy when there wasn’t much to do, but turns out that it’s not a great idea when US domestic politics become incredibly polarized and unpredictable, and whiplash wildly depending on which party gains power. The fact that this wasn’t used as rationale to improve European defense over the last decade or so - specifically, after the 2016 election - is utterly insane to me. Now, everyone’s scrambling around and panicking about how to defend stuff without the US - that is, assuming they’ve even admitted that US isolationism is a thing that’s not going away, which is its own unique flavor of insane myopicism.
All 100% true. EU and rest of NATO giving Trump valid ammunition by not meeting spend targets and essentially giving up the defense game is one of the greatest self-cuckings of all time. Obama and Merkel sold out Crimea for cheap LNG, and EU kept doing business as usual and now the world is hyperdependent on US.
Remember when Russia shot down a passenger jet and over 200 people died and the worst that happened to them was finger pointing? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
No - this is about credible defense policy. As such, all that needs to be done is to adhere to the lines, and then actually and promptly follow through. Have a clear and credible path of escalation:
notify Russia that any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace will be shot down, without warning
shoot down, without warning, any aircraft, drones, or missiles that cross from Russian or Belarusian airspace into any NATO airspace
notify Russia that any additional intrusions will be viewed as attacks, and that any subsequent intrusions will have their launch points or airbases rendered mission-ineffective
render any airbases or launch points that are the origin of subsequent intrusions mission-ineffective
This is a level of realpolitik that the Russians will absolutely understand.
Totally agree but the first point should have been done 3 years ago and we should have been on point 3 since the first rockets fell in Poland which was like 2 years ago. Now we should be on point 4, not starting to think about the first one.
I agree completely. Biden’s lead-in to the invasion was, to be frank, a brilliantly adept usage and dissemination of intelligence.
And then he, on the advice of the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned, unforgivably Kissinger-esque, and idiotically geopolitically myopic Jake Sullivan, slow walked fucking everything after that point, because they were too busy pissing their pants at the ghost of USSR past to realize that Russia is a shadow of its former self, and relies on blustering and sword-rattling as primary geopolitical tactics, but doesn’t actually have the capacity to back any of it up.
Hey, remember when Turkey unflinchingly smoked an Su-24 that entered their airspace, and then Russian shit flying into Turkish airspace was no longer a problem that Turkey had to deal with?
Pepperidge Farm remembers.
The solution is easy. You just need to have the stones to react to the situation as the Russians themselves would. That’s the geopolitical calculus they respond to. This pussy-footing around “avoiding escalation” encourages them to engage in encroaching brinksmanship. If NATO were to collectively say “here’s the line, don’t fucking cross it”, and then frag anything that crossed the line, Russia would very quickly stop crossing the line.
Turns out Russia DOES understand violence.
One might even go so far as to say that it’s their geopolitical mother tongue.
Hey, listen here, appeasement will work THIS time, I am sure of it. Maybe the EU needs to send send back some Russian dissidents and asylum seekers, that’ll do it. Or buy some more oil.
On a more serious note, NATO does not seem to understand that “fuck around,find out” doesn’t work when the “find out” phase is just a strongly worded letter.
It’s a direct result of relying almost entirely on the US Military as the “find out” part. That was a fine policy when there wasn’t much to do, but turns out that it’s not a great idea when US domestic politics become incredibly polarized and unpredictable, and whiplash wildly depending on which party gains power. The fact that this wasn’t used as rationale to improve European defense over the last decade or so - specifically, after the 2016 election - is utterly insane to me. Now, everyone’s scrambling around and panicking about how to defend stuff without the US - that is, assuming they’ve even admitted that US isolationism is a thing that’s not going away, which is its own unique flavor of insane myopicism.
All 100% true. EU and rest of NATO giving Trump valid ammunition by not meeting spend targets and essentially giving up the defense game is one of the greatest self-cuckings of all time. Obama and Merkel sold out Crimea for cheap LNG, and EU kept doing business as usual and now the world is hyperdependent on US.
Remember when Russia shot down a passenger jet and over 200 people died and the worst that happened to them was finger pointing? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Yep. Pretty fucking insane that they’ve effectively gotten away with that whole episode scott-free
Yeah, for me the troops releasing drones from Belarus are a legitimate target now. Sadly I’m not in charge of NATO.
No - this is about credible defense policy. As such, all that needs to be done is to adhere to the lines, and then actually and promptly follow through. Have a clear and credible path of escalation:
This is a level of realpolitik that the Russians will absolutely understand.
Totally agree but the first point should have been done 3 years ago and we should have been on point 3 since the first rockets fell in Poland which was like 2 years ago. Now we should be on point 4, not starting to think about the first one.
I agree completely. Biden’s lead-in to the invasion was, to be frank, a brilliantly adept usage and dissemination of intelligence.
And then he, on the advice of the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned, unforgivably Kissinger-esque, and idiotically geopolitically myopic Jake Sullivan, slow walked fucking everything after that point, because they were too busy pissing their pants at the ghost of USSR past to realize that Russia is a shadow of its former self, and relies on blustering and sword-rattling as primary geopolitical tactics, but doesn’t actually have the capacity to back any of it up.